More Derby Anticipation

It has not been a good week for working horses.  Bummer.  The weather has been downright brutal.  Rainy, windy, cold.  Heck, it even snowed. Today we finally have a glimmer of sun, and I plan to let the pent-up horses play.  I think they need that today more than ground driving.  Much more fun to play 🙂  Hopefull Saturday it will be decent enough to drive.

I’m  making progress on getting a Meadowbrook for Chewbacca – I’ve got 4 carts to look at in the next few weeks.  I’m also looking forward to attending the driving clinic next weekend, and I’ve got a sled, for whenever it gets decent enough to work Chewie, I can try to have him pull me in the sled.    That should be good and fun.  LOL 🙂

Needless to say, with only 14 days to the day before I leave for Kentucky, I’m completely excited!  I really can’t wait for the Derby, and I hope to have as good of a time as I envision.

I like watching horse racing.  I bet sometimes, like maybe $20.  Sometimes I’ll wager on a trifecta.  I go to the track once a year.  I’ll also bet on the derby every year via an OTB.  I pick the horses because I like their name, or they’re pretty.  I usually always bet on the gray horses to win, and they usually almost always never do 🙂  Lol. 

I don’t pay attention to dosages, DPI’s or any other stats that real gamblers do, because I just do it for fun once a year.

But, since I’ll be attending the Derby in person this year, I do want to pay attention to what’s happening with the horses.  I want to use half a brain when I place my wagers.

So, Uncle Mo really had the top standing.  He won his Breeder’s cup race last year, and had been, until recently, the top running pick for winning the Kentucky Derby.  And then came his last Derby prep race, the Wood Memorial.  Now they’re comparing him to Secretariat, who also ran 3rd in the wood due to a tooth abcess.  They’re saying Uncle Mo had something wrong with his gut and something about a bleeding hoof, so he got 3rd.

He’s still a favorite for the KY Derby, but he’s also been lowered a little in odds, and now the field is a whole lot more even.  I don’t know if Uncle Mo is a new Secretariat in the making, but it will be interesting to see what happens.  Right now his trainers are in a panic trying to get him ready for the Derby, and “healed” from his mystery ailments.

There are 20 horses in the field.  And with the exception of possibly Uncle Mo, none of them are particular standouts.  I went through everybody and took notes, so I can try to come up with a plan of who to bet on.

Here it is:

 The distance is going to be a big factor.  The KY Derby is 1 1/4 mile.  These horses have all run 1 mile, 1 1/16  mile, and 1 1/8 mile.  As I compared horses, it was interesting to see which horses peetered out the longer the race got.  Seems to me these are all speed horses, not stamina horses.  So who’s gonna make it that extra 1/8 mile and get to the finish line first?  That’s the big question, right?  I guess that’s what makes wagering interesting and is the reason for all the DP’s and what-not’s.

ArchArchArch just won the Arkansas Derby.  He beat out the hopeful favorite, and other promising KY Derby horse, The Factor.  The Factor got 7th.   And Nehro won 2nd.  So all 3 of these horses are KY Derby bound.  but they got 1st, 2nd, and 7th in a 1 1/8 race.  Can ArchArchArch do it again against the same competition and make it to the finish line first?

Dialed In has a solid win-win over 1 1/8 mile tracks.  I kind of like him.

Comma To The Top had 2 wins in 7 starts. 

Toby’s Corner won the Wood Memorial, beating out Uncle Mo and now he’s the favorite.  1 1/8 mile track.  Is Toby’s Corner able to hold onto the win for that extra 1/8 mile.  Maybe there’s more to him that just luck in the Wood.

Pants on Fire won over 1 1/8 mile at his latest start.

Midnight Interlude, trained by Bob Baffert, won at Santa Anita earlier this month. 

JP’s Gusto has had 9 starts.  I think he’s has the most starts out of all the KY Derby horses, and he progressively got worse and worse.  He won his first 3 starts, and recently ended in 8th, just behind The Factor at the Arkansas Derby.  It’s like they’re all old track buddies.  Personally, I think JPs Gusto’s performances scream a horse that’s tired of racing. 

Soldat looks like a nice, solid horse.  But he recently placed 5th in the FL Derby over 1 1/8 mile.

Brilliant Speed had 1 start at Keenland,and won it a few days ago.   How do you know what the horse is really like after only 1 start?  Yes, it was 1 1/8 mile, but I don’t know what that one start tells me about this horse.  Maybe I’ll pick him to place.

Twice the Appeal also won his only start.  Seems to me a lot of these horses are pretty even.  Now I know what they mean by having an even field.  Many of these horses have won their only starts on 1 1/8 mile tracks.

MuchoMachoMan would be my pick based on name only  🙂  LOL.  Unfortunately his 5 starts are pretty middle.  1 win, 2 places, 1 show.

Decisive Moment, I guess didn’t finish his last start.  Eeek.

Animal Kingdon also won his 1 and only start over 1 1/8 mile.

Stay Thirsty won 2 starts over shorter distances, and then faltered back to 7th over a 1 1/8 mile track.  Somehow I doubt he’ll be able to push that extra distance out.

Santiva recently got 9th over a 1 1/8 mile at Keenland.  Not a glowing record on this colt’s 4 starts.

Watch Me Go won his 1st start, and then fell back to 6th over 1 1/8 mile, again –  no distance runners in this race!

Anthony’s Cross is another 1 start 1 win over 1 1/8 mile.

Hmmm….. tough choices.  I guess I’ll decide once I see the final odds the morning of the race.  Who knows, anybody can pull out at this point, and since everybody’s pretty well even, it will dumb luck if I actually pick a winner!

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About kshai1715

I am a lifelong equestrian, photography enthusiast, sci-fi lover, and sci-fi convention & costuming geek that also loves movies and video games. I am a hard working 30 something woman that survived cancer and am looking forward to a long, healthy, self-empowered life. Welcome to my blog and I hope you enjoy reading about my horses (and the rest of my life) as much as I like writing about them.
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One Response to More Derby Anticipation

  1. Tracie Noel says:

    I’m with you – always go for the grey horses (you know why, you’ve read my blog :-)! The Factor was my man, but due to the poor Arkansas Derby performance, I’m waffling on betting him. I really like Archarcharch, if only because I’m a fan of Claiborne (they stand his daddy). I was also mighty impressed with that closing run Nehro put on in AD. So I dunno… Dialed In’s trainer Zito says he’s the best horse he’s ever had and that’s saying a LOT, so maybe it will be him! You probably won’t be able to see them in the paddock, unfortunately, but if you see something you like/don’t like at the last minute when they hit the track, hopefully you’ll still have time to make a bet.

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